Well... I'm getting comfortable in my new flat and getting into a routine again... I since haven't fed the blog in quite awhile so here goes... Munch away.
Two countries... two elections - but similar dynamics in play.
For US... I think it's Obama's to lose and I don't believe he will. If there ever is a right guy at the right time, it's him. The Bush years have set him up so beautifully. VP Biden adds a real experience factor and not much baggage, and together they are a very formidable tandem, probably the most inspirational since the Clinton/Gore ticket. Once Hilliary really starts helping out... it might even be a landslide.
As for John McCain, man I've always liked him and think he would make a very good president, but unfortunately for him, he is attached to the wrong party, to the wrong presiding president, and to the wrong war. He got the short end of the stick. Having said that, I really applaud his decision to bring in Sarah Palin. Not that I'm a big fan of hers (how can anybody be a fan of someone we hardly know), but just for the sheer strategy of mixing up the dynamics. She certainly has been impressive in her 5 minutes of glory and has made quite an impact. But this is September the 12th. And as we get into October and the final days of the election, the focus will be on Obama and McCain once again. I think this will be as a close to a slam dunk as we have seen in our lifetimes. And yes, I realize many things can still happen and probably will, the debates notwithstanding.
As for the Canadian election... it is Stephen Harper's to lose and I don't think he will. The only question is .... whether it will be another minority or a majority. The reason I feel so sure is the same reason why Jean Chrétien got all those majorities in the 90s... the lack of a suitable and competent alternative. This time though, the shoe is on the left foot as Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion has not looked comfortable since taking office and has shown a lot of inadequacy in being a leader. He reminds me of a Joe Clark or a John Turner, a good man with excellent political values and sense but not a natural leader. Some grow to become one... but many don't, including Joe and John. I think the same fate awaits Dion. I do not believe most Canadians will trust giving him the keys to Sussex mansion. On the positive side though, I do believe this campaign will give him the opportunity to define himself to Canadians, as a decent, good and passionate man. I just doubt he will be able to define himself as a Prime Minister, not with the current one staring him down. I just don't see it.
There are those on the left ... who would die before voting for Harper, blogging away with their reasons a plenty. And similarly, there will be those on the right, with no hesitation, casting their votes to bring Harper and the Conservatives back. And as for everyone else... they will look at the landscape and ask if the current prime minister deserves a majority or not.
In 2009... it will be President Obama and Prime Minister Harper. And you know what, I am actually hopeful for the first time in 8 years about our future...
1 comment:
Hope you're right about Obama .. the thought of another four years with McCain and Palin at the helm scares the bejeezus out of me ..
As for Canada, I'll refrain chucking my $.02 into the fray (you can probably guess what it is, anyway), though I would disagree on the notion that Joe Clark (and, to a lesser extent) John Turner failed to 'grow' to become leaders. Joe Clark's leadership was essentially sabotaged by Brian Mulroney's gang, and given that he was up against Pierre Trudeau as Opposition Leader, he likely never had a chance.
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