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Thursday, November 30, 2006

Predictions Are For Fools

There are two television events, that most people find boring as hell, but I just can't get enough of. They are NHL Hockey Drafts and Political Conventions. Actually, I dig both for the same dynamic, namely the drama and deals that are made on the floor, on live TV.... I just find it extremely compelling...

Yep, I am a confirmed political junkie and this weekend, I will be glued to my TV watching the Liberal Leadership Convention with all the drama that unfolds...

They say predictions are for fools...

And since I am one....

Here are my predictions for this weekend in Montreal...
  • The winner at the end of the night will be the man who is currently in fourth place - Stephane Dion. It will take three or possibly four ballets, but he will prevail. And he will be a great leader of the Liberal party!
  • I think that Gerard Kennedy will do well on the day (even outlasting Bob Rae) but in the end, the math will kill him and he'll have to bow out, throwing his support to Dion, along with many of his supporters.
  • The "anyone but Iggy" movement will gain some serious momentum during the day, and the frontrunner Michael Ignatieff will be defeated on the last ballet to Dion.
  • And what about Bob Rae? Well, I think he'll be the biggest disappointment on the day, as many delegates will recall and reflect on his time as Premier of Ontario, and an old NDPer. He will not get very much second ballet support.

That's my take.... But as I always say...

What the hell do I know? :-)

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm with you Martin.

I've always been a fan of Draft Day. There's nothing like it - no matter the sport. Last summer, I attended the Raptor Draft Party and recorded TV coverage of the draft so's I could watch the "expert" analysis afterwards.

As I grow older, political conventions hold much more interest than they did when I was younger. I now watch follow all the Canadian (and American) conventions closely, and with much anticipation. This weekend will be no exception.

On another note, I find it very curious that candidates can switch parties so conveniently and fluidly. Bob Rae was an NDP party leader and now he's a Liberal. (Wait a minute, who was his university buddy roommate again?) Jean Charest was the Federal PC leader and became Quebec's Liberal leader. The only switch that caused any uproar in recent memory was when Belinda Stronach crossed the floor. Is there so little difference between party platforms that such moves cause so little stir? Are politicians really all the same? The cynical me might think so.

Anonymous said...

I tend to agree with the previous comment .. which is one reason why I get a bit of the 'bang-head-against-wall' syndrome when I hear how none but the traditional two parties are 'viable'. Perhaps what Canada needs is a genuine political shakeup .. perhaps what we need is an NDP government, a Green Party opposition, or some other political entity to come forward without the baggage and inertia inherent in both the Conservatives and Liberals.

It is risky, but as you, yourself have said, the status quo has some serious drawbacks as well.

-- Chris

Anonymous said...

Dude ...

Well, you sure called that one!

Go buy a 6/49 ticket while you're on a roll .. :)

-- Chris

Martin said...

Thx., Chris.

Even a broken clock is correct twice a day... :-)